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Vance is leading Ryan in exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll – USA TODAY

Good afternoon, OnPolitics readers. It’s Politics Managing Editor Caren Bohan with the results of an exclusive new poll in the tight Ohio Senate race.

Economic anxiety is weighing on Democrats in the Midwest in the final stretch before the Nov. 8 midterm elections,  according to fresh polls. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows Republican J.D. Vance with a slight lead over Democrat Tim Ryan, Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page reports.

Vance leads 47%-45%, a shift from Ryan’s one-point advantage last month, 47%-46%. Both findings are within the survey’s 4.4 percentage-point margin of error. 

The No. 1 issue on voters’ minds? The economy. Asked to choose from a list of five options, 44% of likely midterm voters cited the economy and inflation as their most important concerns. Threats to democracy and abortion lagged behind, with each listed as the top concern by 19% of those in the survey.

Ohioans view the economic landscape as troubled. Three in four rate the economy as fair or poor, compared to one in five who call it excellent or good.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer remains the favorite to win reelection in her race against Republican Tudor Dixon but her lead is not as commanding as it once was, according to a poll from EPIC-MRA of Lansing, conducted for the Free Press and its statewide media partners. The Free Press is part of the USA TODAY network.

Whitmer’s lead over Republican challenger Tudor Dixon is 11 percentage points, down from 16 points in September. The EPIC-MRA poll found inflation has overtaken abortion as the top issue on voters’ minds and views of the Michigan economy have darkened since the last poll just a little over three weeks ago. –Caren Bohan

It’s Amy with the top stories out of Washington.

Real quick: stories you’ll want to read

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  • 🗳️ When does early voting begin in your state? Voters in some states could have already begun casting their ballots for the midterm election. In others, in-person early voting begins as soon as this week. Here’s the full list of voting dates by state.
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📺 What’s next: Candidates in key races this midterm election cycle are taking to the stage tonight.

Georgia gubernatorial candidates Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp will face off at 7 p.m. ET. 

Meanwhile, Ohio Senate candidates Rep. Tim Ryan and J.D. Vance will be debating for the second time at the same time. Follow our live blogs for the latest updates.

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